Imperfect Information

A Pincer Grip

The following remarks were prepared for delivery to the board of the Teagle Foundation a couple of weeks ago.

Jun 3 • Rajiv Sethi

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A Conversation with Matt Jackson

Back in February of this year I had the opportunity to speak with Matt Jackson for the Human Centered podcast. This is the official podcast of the…

Jun 1 • Rajiv Sethi

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March 2026

Information Contagion

At around 6:50am ET on March 24, there was an unusually large spike in trading volume in oil and stock futures markets.

Mar 31 • Rajiv Sethi

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Trading on Violence

Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

Mar 2

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February 2026

Claude (Anthropic) on the Tariff Case

There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of…

Feb 20 • Rajiv Sethi

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The Second Coming

The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two…

Feb 16 • Rajiv Sethi

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January 2026

Guessing Games

In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of…

Jan 18 • Rajiv Sethi

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The Venezuela Windfall

Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.

Jan 8 • Rajiv Sethi

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December 2025

Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds

I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.

Dec 10, 2025 • Rajiv Sethi

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November 2025

Encountering the Buddha

I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.

Nov 26, 2025 • Rajiv Sethi

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The Detection of Wash Trading

Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened…

Nov 12, 2025 • Rajiv Sethi

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Markets and the Mayor's Race

We’re just a few days away from discovering who will be the next mayor of New York City, but according to at least one major prediction market, it’s…

Nov 1, 2025 • Rajiv Sethi

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