Imperfect Information

Home
Notes
Archive
About
The Kennedy Effect
We are living in a topsy-turvy world.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
4
The Polymarket Raid
Federal agents raided the home of Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan yesterday, apparently on the grounds that the company was operating “as an unlicensed…
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
The Storm Ahead
On July 19, Nils Gilman posted a thread on social media that opened with the following warning:
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
4
The Lesson for Markets
There are many important congressional races yet to be decided in the 2024 election, but the presidential race is in the books.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
An Election Day Update on Forecasting Mechanisms
It’s Election Day in America, which on my calendar is something close to a sacred occasion.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
2
Clashing and Collapsing Narratives
In a recent post I observed that the price of a contract in a prediction market, though commonly interpreted as a probability, doesn’t correspond to the…
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
The Limits of Arbitrage
Something quite interesting has been happening on prediction markets over the past month, especially in comparison with the forecasts emerging from…
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
4
Predicting an Election
I spent an hour or so with Glenn Loury last Sunday on his podcast, and the episode is now available on all the usual streaming platforms.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi

October 2024

Forecasting Mechanisms: Another Update
The gulf between models and markets in predicting the outcome of the November election has widened.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
4
The French Connection
Over the past week or so, a sizable gap has opened up between prediction markets and statistical models referencing the outcome of the November…
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
4
Forecasting Mechanisms: An Update
At around 3:30pm on Election Day in 2012, I noticed something unusual on Intrade.
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
The Fredi9999 Account
On the morning of October 7 there was a sharp increase in the price of the Trump contract on Polymarket that did not seem connected to any new public…
 • 
Rajiv Sethi
© 2024 Rajiv Sethi
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture