Imperfect Information

Encountering the Buddha

I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.

Nov 26 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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The Detection of Wash Trading

Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened…

Nov 12 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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Markets and the Mayor's Race

We’re just a few days away from discovering who will be the next mayor of New York City, but according to at least one major prediction market, it’s…

Nov 1 • 

Rajiv Sethi

13

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October 2025

The Compact

According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant…

Oct 3 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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September 2025

Gun Supply

A recent issue of Vital City is on the supply side of America’s gun problem.

Sep 18 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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August 2025

Celebrity Unions and Price Volatility

When Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement on Instagram a couple of days ago, it was 1pm on the East Coast and the price of a…

Aug 28 • 

Rajiv Sethi

11

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The Interpretation of Signals

One of the themes that I have explored from time to time in this newsletter is the interpretation of signals.

Aug 26 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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Merit, Mission, and a Memorandum

A presidential memorandum issued on August 7 asserts the following:

Aug 12 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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July 2025

The Columbia Deal

On July 23rd, Columbia University signed an agreement with the federal government that covers a broad range of issues including hiring and admissions…

Jul 27 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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Guns + Violence

Jens Ludwig is a founder and director of the Crime Lab at the University of Chicago and the author of a recent book Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected…

Jul 25 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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A Second Act for PredictIt

PredictIt was the most active and widely referenced political prediction market in the United States for the seven years following its launch in 2015.

Jul 16 • 

Rajiv Sethi

11

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Professional Distancing in Academia

When scholars are targeted for speech acts, what happens to their productivity and influence?

Jul 4 • 

Rajiv Sethi

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