Archive - Imperfect Information

A Second Act for PredictIt

PredictIt was the most active and widely referenced political prediction market in the United States for the seven years following its launch in 2015.

Jul 16 •

Professional Distancing in Academia

When scholars are targeted for speech acts, what happens to their productivity and influence?

Jul 4 •

June 2025

Markets, Models, and Mamdani

Political prediction markets have been around for decades, but rose to unprecedented visibility and prominence during the last election cycle in the…

Jun 28 •

The Summer of 1967

A couple of days ago, a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that federal control of the California National Guard could continue over the…

Jun 22 •

Betting on Geopolitical Violence

Back in 2003, a Pentagon office led by Admiral John M.

Jun 18 •

Body Blows and Brain Drains

None of the blows that have been inflicted on American higher education over the past few months were unanticipated.

Jun 5 •

May 2025

Reflections on Boldness

I graduated from college at a time and place where donning regalia and marching in procession were considered quaint at best and unbearably pompous at…

May 22 •

Prediction Markets and the Pope

White smoke was seen rising from a chimney at the Sistine Chapel at around 6:07pm local time yesterday, announcing the election of a new pope.

May 9 •

April 2025

The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) has been tracking calls for sanction faced by scholars in American higher education, and…

Apr 26 •

The University in Exile

I feel like we are witnessing a charade.

Apr 10 •

Engineered Volatility

At around 8:24am (ET) yesterday the director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, was asked whether the President was considering a 90-day…

Apr 8 •

Reciprocal Tariffs

If you thought reciprocal tariffs meant the imposition of import duties on others that match those they currently impose on us, you’re probably not…

Apr 3 •

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