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The Storm Ahead
On July 19, Nils Gilman posted a thread on social media that opened with the following warning:
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Rajiv Sethi
4
The Lesson for Markets
There are many important congressional races yet to be decided in the 2024 election, but the presidential race is in the books.
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Rajiv Sethi
An Election Day Update on Forecasting Mechanisms
It’s Election Day in America, which on my calendar is something close to a sacred occasion.
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Rajiv Sethi
2
Clashing and Collapsing Narratives
In a recent post I observed that the price of a contract in a prediction market, though commonly interpreted as a probability, doesn’t correspond to the…
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Rajiv Sethi
The Limits of Arbitrage
Something quite interesting has been happening on prediction markets over the past month, especially in comparison with the forecasts emerging from…
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Rajiv Sethi
4
Predicting an Election
I spent an hour or so with Glenn Loury last Sunday on his podcast, and the episode is now available on all the usual streaming platforms.
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Rajiv Sethi
Forecasting Mechanisms: Another Update
The gulf between models and markets in predicting the outcome of the November election has widened.
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Rajiv Sethi
4
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