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Nov 6Liked by Rajiv Sethi

Just read this tweet and I'm left wondering how, say, a betting market 68% prediction of a Trump victory translates compared to

50/50 polling aggregate.

https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1854165174246097189.

How do you compare them to decide who "wins" - especially when a Trump sweep of the swing states seems pretty much within the margin of error?

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author

Take a look at the end of this post for my thoughts on this, can't judge based on headline event alone:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/polymarket-resolves-presidential-election-contract/

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