It’s Election Day in America, which on my calendar is something close to a sacred occasion.
Just read this tweet and I'm left wondering how, say, a betting market 68% prediction of a Trump victory translates compared to
50/50 polling aggregate.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1854165174246097189.
How do you compare them to decide who "wins" - especially when a Trump sweep of the swing states seems pretty much within the margin of error?
Take a look at the end of this post for my thoughts on this, can't judge based on headline event alone:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/polymarket-resolves-presidential-election-contract/
Just read this tweet and I'm left wondering how, say, a betting market 68% prediction of a Trump victory translates compared to
50/50 polling aggregate.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1854165174246097189.
How do you compare them to decide who "wins" - especially when a Trump sweep of the swing states seems pretty much within the margin of error?
Take a look at the end of this post for my thoughts on this, can't judge based on headline event alone:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/polymarket-resolves-presidential-election-contract/