It’s Election Day in America, which on my calendar is something close to a sacred occasion.
I like this method a lot. In defense of the polling based models, they predicted more polling error than betting markets (see on my Substack for more detail)
Just read this tweet and I'm left wondering how, say, a betting market 68% prediction of a Trump victory translates compared to
50/50 polling aggregate.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1854165174246097189.
How do you compare them to decide who "wins" - especially when a Trump sweep of the swing states seems pretty much within the margin of error?
Take a look at the end of this post for my thoughts on this, can't judge based on headline event alone:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/polymarket-resolves-presidential-election-contract/
I like this method a lot. In defense of the polling based models, they predicted more polling error than betting markets (see on my Substack for more detail)
Just read this tweet and I'm left wondering how, say, a betting market 68% prediction of a Trump victory translates compared to
50/50 polling aggregate.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1854165174246097189.
How do you compare them to decide who "wins" - especially when a Trump sweep of the swing states seems pretty much within the margin of error?
Take a look at the end of this post for my thoughts on this, can't judge based on headline event alone:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/polymarket-resolves-presidential-election-contract/