The prediction market PredictIt has been operating under a no-action letter from the CFTC since 2014. This permission has now been withdrawn, and the exchange has been ordered to liquidate all open positions by February 15 of next year: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight (DMO) today announced it is withdrawing CFTC Letter No.
Doug Campbell here, academic economist & the Founder & CEO of Insight Prediction, a rival prediction market.
I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, it's probably good for us in some way, as predictit traders will probably move somewhere else, and we may get a few of them. But, I myself am a long-time predictit trader, and so I'm bummed by seeing their platform close. They probably were in violation of their no-action letter, but if the CFTC had a problem with their fees, some of their markets, or their KYC, I'm sure had they warned Predictit, their concerns would have been addressed. To just go suddenly to a shutdown seems a bit strange. Also, doing so at just the moment when another entity just happened to be applying to run their markets smacks of favoritism, and makes it feel as if the CFTC is doing Kalshi's bidding.
Predictit is still surviving! Btw you can use Futuur to find more markets and to place your bets with crypto or play-money
Surely it's a coincidence that recent CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenez has a seat on Kalshi's board of directors.
Doug Campbell here, academic economist & the Founder & CEO of Insight Prediction, a rival prediction market.
I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, it's probably good for us in some way, as predictit traders will probably move somewhere else, and we may get a few of them. But, I myself am a long-time predictit trader, and so I'm bummed by seeing their platform close. They probably were in violation of their no-action letter, but if the CFTC had a problem with their fees, some of their markets, or their KYC, I'm sure had they warned Predictit, their concerns would have been addressed. To just go suddenly to a shutdown seems a bit strange. Also, doing so at just the moment when another entity just happened to be applying to run their markets smacks of favoritism, and makes it feel as if the CFTC is doing Kalshi's bidding.