In late November 2020, almost four weeks after the US presidential election, the race had been called, a transition had been initiated, and vote totals in a decisive number of states had been certified.
Are you implying that people in the Trump administration knew he was going to try to cheat and placed bets on him winning based on that inside information?
They may not have considered it cheating, but yes - I'm saying that some information regarding legal theories and plans leaked out through the trading activity of those directly involved or perhaps others with whom they were in contact
There were definitely differences across exchanges but they were all in the same ball park if I remember right, and the volume was extremely heavy, that's right... in fact the presidential market maxed out on the number of traders
Are you implying that people in the Trump administration knew he was going to try to cheat and placed bets on him winning based on that inside information?
They may not have considered it cheating, but yes - I'm saying that some information regarding legal theories and plans leaked out through the trading activity of those directly involved or perhaps others with whom they were in contact
Rajiv
Does that mean that those speculators lost money on their bets when he lost?
It's possible they unloaded their positions before the market was shut down, but some folks clearly lost a lot of money
There were definitely differences across exchanges but they were all in the same ball park if I remember right, and the volume was extremely heavy, that's right... in fact the presidential market maxed out on the number of traders